Demand Softens, Supply Rebounds as India’s Housing Market Enters a Phase of Measured Moderation in OND 2025

 Demand Softens, Supply Rebounds as India’s Housing Market Enters a Phase of Measured Moderation in OND 2025

New Delhi, Jan 13: According to Magicbricks’ latest PropIndex report for the October–November–December (OND) 2025 quarter, India’s residential real estate market entered a phase of measured moderation, with housing demand declining by 8.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) even as supply rebounded by 3.4% QoQ across key cities. Residential prices rose by 1.5% QoQ and 16.9% year-on-year (YoY) during the quarter—the slowest pace of appreciation recorded in the past two years indicating a shift towards more stable, value-led market conditions amid seasonal and policy-related recalibration.

“The moderation witnessed during OND 2025 reflects a phase of market recalibration rather than any weakening of underlying fundamentals,” said Sudir Pai, CEO, Magicbricks “Demand softness during the quarter was largely seasonal and policy-driven, while the rebound in supply indicates that developers are increasingly aligning new launches with affordability thresholds and end-user demand. The slower pace of price appreciation suggests a shift towards more sustainable, value-led growth, particularly across mid and upper-mid segments, which continue to demonstrate the strongest absorption visibility.”

The moderation in demand aligns with festive-season spending patterns and ongoing monetary policy transitions, as homebuyers adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid evolving interest rate expectations. At the same time, the rebound in supply indicates cautious confidence among developers, particularly in price brackets where affordability and demand depth remain strong.

After two quarters of relative stability, housing supply gained momentum during OND 2025, with pan-India listings rising 3.4% QoQ and remaining marginally positive on an annual basis. Greater Noida (+9.6%), Gurugram (+6.6%), Thane (+5.1%) and Noida (+4.8%) emerged as key contributors to new supply additions. The revival was largely concentrated in the mid and upper-mid segments, as developers increasingly aligned new launches with end-user affordability thresholds.

A closer look at supply composition reveals a strategic recalibration across markets. In the National Capital Region, mid and upper-mid segment supply rose sharply in Greater Noida and Gurugram (both +27.3%) and Noida (+13.4%), while luxury supply showed signs of moderation. Gurugram recorded a 32.5% increase in homes priced up to INR 3 crore, compared to a 14.2% rise in the luxury segment above INR 5 crore. Mumbai mirrored a similar trend, with supply up to INR 5 crore increasing by 10.2%, even as listings above INR 9 crore declined by 8.5% QoQ.

Bengaluru remained the only major market to witness consistent expansion in luxury housing, supported by demand across established micro-markets such as Whitefield, Koramangala, Indiranagar, JP Nagar and Bellary Road. In contrast, Hyderabad saw a stronger push towards mid-segment housing, with supply up to INR 2.5 crore rising by 15.4%, compared to a 9.5% increase in homes priced above INR 5 crore.

Select cities are also emerging as new premium-growth pockets. Chennai and Kolkata recorded an increase of 19.2% and 11.9%, respectively, in supply above INR 3 crore, while Pune (+28.9%) and Thane (+33.1%) saw notable traction at higher price points. This trend is being supported by infrastructure-led development, including metro expansions, improved urban connectivity, and large-scale logistics and employment corridors.

Pricing trends during the quarter reinforced the narrative of market stability. While residential values continued to rise, the pace of appreciation moderated significantly, indicating a transition towards more rational price discovery. Faster supply additions relative to demand are reshaping market dynamics, with selective inventory absorption and cost-side pressures supporting price resilience, particularly in well-connected micro-markets.

Looking ahead to 2026, market momentum is expected to be influenced by interest rate clarity, infrastructure execution, and continued alignment of new supply with affordability thresholds. A potential downward movement in lending rates could help convert deferred demand into transactions, supporting absorption levels and maintaining pricing stability across key residential markets.

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