Research Reports on Life Insurance, Tata Motors, AB Capital, Cipla, Man Industries, KIMS, Tata Steel and SRF by Emkay Global Financial Services

Research Reports on Life Insurance, Tata Motors, AB Capital, Cipla, Man Industries, KIMS, Tata Steel and SRF by Emkay Global Financial Services

As expected, the Life insurance industry reported flat YoY Retail APE growth during Apr-25, with the private sector posting a lackluster 1.9% YoY growth and LIC seeing a 3.7% decline. Our restrained growth expectations for H1FY26 are underpinned by 1) the strong growth base of H1FY25; 2) new surrender value regulations-led product and channel adjustments culling lower ticket-size policies in some products; and 3) a relatively volatile equity market possibly leading to moderate ULIP growth. On 2Y CAGR basis, the private sector clocked 12.7% YoY Retail APE growth, while LIC saw 6.6% growth; this led to 10.5% growth for the industry. During Apr-25, the industry logged 17% YoY Group APE growth, driven by 36.5% growth in the Private sector whereas LIC posted a muted 2.9% growth. The healthy growth in Group APE was driven by strong growth in OYRGTA Premiums (suggesting some pricing improvement). Overall, during Apr-25, total APE for the industry grew 4.4% on the back of 8.3% growth in the private sector offset by LIC reporting a 1.3% decline. The number of individual policies sold during Apr-25 witnessed a 13.2% decline, primarily owing to a 15.3% decline in LIC and the Private sector seeing a 9.5% decline. Among private listed players, Axis Max Life topped the charts, logging a strong 23.5% Retail APE growth despite the strong base. HDFC Life/SBI Life posted a subdued 3.3%/2.4% YoY Retail APE growth, respectively, in Apr-25. However, IPRU Life witnessed a 14.4% decline in its reported Retail APE while RWRP declined 15.7%. While we remain optimistic about medium-to-long-term growth in the Life Insurance (LI) industry driven by the huge opportunity, we expect the LI industry’s Retail APE to grow ~11-12%, led by the private sector delivering ~14-15% growth and LIC reporting ~7-8% growth.

No surprises – Industry starts the Fiscal on a muted note

The Life Insurance industry reported flat Retail APE growth during Apr-25 with the private sector posting a muted 1.9% retail APE growth whereas LIC posted a 3.7% decline. Owing to a high base impact, flat growth for the industry did not involve any surprise elements. The total APE for the industry grew 4.4% during Apr-25 with the Private Sector growing 8.3% whereas LIC posted a 1.3% decline. The number of individual policies sold during Apr-25 witnessed a 13% decline, primarily led by ~15% decline for LIC while the private sector reported a ~10% decline.

Axis Max Life tops the charts; other private listed players deliver a muted show

Among private listed players, Axis Max Life emerged as a consistent and the fastest growing player, clocking 23.5% retail APE growth during Apr-25 despite a strong base (32% Retail APE growth in Apr-24). HDFC Life and SBI Life saw muted Retail APE growth of 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively. IPRU Life witnessed a 15.7% decline in RWRP, whereas reported Retail APE saw a 14.4% decline. On total APE basis, Axis Max Life logged a strong 23% YoY growth, followed by HDFC Life (+9.9% YoY), SBI Life (+7.6% YoY), and IPRU Life (+4.8% WRP growth; 5.3% reported APE decline). Resultantly, Axis Max Life saw a significant RWRP market share gain, from 5.2% in Apr-24 to 6.4% in Apr-25. Consequently, IPRU Life’s RWRP market share contracted by 120bps to 6.1%. Among other private players, TATA AIA (-2.1% YoY), BALIC (-2.2% YoY) and Kotak Life (-6.7% YoY) reported a decline in Retail APE, whereas Aditya Birla Sun Life posted a muted 1.9% Retail APE growth in Apr-25.

We expect the industry to deliver ~11-12% Retail APE growth in FY26

Given the huge opportunity, we remain optimistic on the medium-to-long term growth of the Life Insurance industry. We expect private sector Retail APE to grow ~14-15% and LIC to report ~7-8% growth, leading to ~11-12 Retail APE growth for the industry. Owing to a high base, growth during H1FY26 is expected to be subdued, while we expect healthy growth in H2FY26 on account of the impact of Surrender regulations coming in the base. The upside risk to growth in H1 could emerge from accelerated sales of guaranteed non-par, in case deposit rates fall sharply.

Q4 results were largely in line with consensus (flattish revenue and EBITDA), with India margin flattish QoQ and JLR margin up 115bps to 15.3% on higher volumes; JLR delivered £1.35bn/1.5bn FCF in Q4/FY25 with consolidated net auto debt at (Rs10bn) vs Rs160bn in FY24. JLR acknowledged near-term volume pressure and refrained from providing margin guidance amid ongoing global uncertainties, However, it highlighted it would continue to focus on costs as a key driver for protecting profitability. India CV outlook has improved at the margin (single-digit growth led by HCVs); double-digit margin in CVs to sustain with PVs also on track to achieve double-digit margin. India CV outlook has improved at the margin (single-digit growth led by HCVs); double-digit margin in CVs to sustain with PVs also on track to achieve double-digit margin. While near-term growth challenges persist, we believe profitability (and thus balance sheet health) should largely sustain, led by focus on mix and costs; valuation is comfortable (trades at ~1.6x FY27E P/B despite strong operational/financial improvements in the past few years; refer to our recent note). We trim FY26E/27E EPS by ~2-3%; We retain BUY with unchanged SoTP-based TP of Rs800.

Q4 results largely in line; sharp working capital improvement drives FCF

Consolidated revenue/EBITDA were flattish YoY at Rs1,195bn/Rs166.3bn (largely in line with consensus) and EBITDA margin was up 290bps QoQ to 13.9% on lower other expenses. Revenue dipped ~2% YoY to £7.7bn with ASPs down ~3% QoQ; EBITDA margin was up 115bps QoQ to 15.3%. India CV/PV margins were flattish QoQ at 12.2%/7.7%. JLR generated ~£1.35bn FCF in Q4, with working capital improving by £1bn, taking overall FY25 FCF to ~£1.5bn, achieving net cash status (£278mn); on a consolidated basis, net automotive debt stood at (Rs10bn) vs Rs160bn in FY24.Â

Earnings Call KTAs

1) JLR–Q1 volumes to be weaker than Q4 amid inventory push in Q4 in anticipation of tariff disruption; geographic mix to remain stable (UK, Germany, and overseas markets to fare better). JLR to remain cautious on Chinese inventory levels but is looking to fill distribution white spaces, awaiting finer details of the recent US-UK trade deal to assess impact on operations (exports from the UK to attract 10% tariffs, exports from Europe to attract 27.5% tariffs). Jaguar’s new 4 door model to go on sale in 2026; Range Rover BEV has 62K waitlist; maintained £18bn investment target over five years (would be funded by internal accruals). The company has deferred its EBIT guidance considering recent global macro uncertainties, albeit it aims to protect profitability via cost control measures and strengthening of brand loyalty and China operations. 2) India CVs–Domestic industry to grow in a single digit in FY26 with heavy CVs to grow faster amid improving macro and sentiment (particularly tippers); aims to increase SCV market share with product actions and targets continued strong double-digit margin, cash flows, and return ratios. 3) India PVs–Industry growth to be similar to FY25 with segmental trends continuing; expects to outperform amid refreshed hatchback models and new EV launches. Cost reduction, pricing optimization and better mix to deliver ~300bps margin uptick, partially offset by higher RM; on track for double-digit margins; aspires to sustain EV market share over 50% on product actions.