12, May 2026
Brainomix and Boehringer Ingelheim Advance Strategic Partnership in Pulmonary Fibrosis

OXFORD, England and CHICAGO, May 12th, 2026 — Brainomix, a global leader and pioneer of AI-powered imaging tools in lung fibrosis and stroke, today announced an expansion of its partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim, the leading biopharmaceutical company providing therapeutic options for interstitial lung disease (ILD), to improve the care of patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF).

Patients with Interstitial Lung Diseases (ILD) may progress to PPF, a condition marked by irreversible lung damage and increased risk of early mortality. Without treatment, patients may have a lifespan as short as five years1, yet many still endure long delays – often years – before receiving a diagnosis2. Early diagnosis and intervention can play a major role in a patient’s prognosis, but determining which patients are eligible for treatment based on imaging remains challenging, even for experienced specialists.

Brainomix e-Lung is an FDA-cleared, AI-driven imaging software platform that automatically detects and quantifies abnormalities on thoracic CT scans, helping clinicians more easily identify changes, including subtle deterioration across multiple timepoints. Built on proprietary technology, e-Lung has been clinically validated to measure lung features associated with interstitial lung diseases (ILD).

Results from REVISE-PPF, a retrospective research study conducted with the University of Chicago, Weill Cornell Medical Center, and the University of Alabama at Birmingham, will be presented by Dr. Anna Podolanczuk (Weill-Cornell) at an ATS session on Sunday, May 17th. The study demonstrated that e-Lung was able to stratify patients at risk of PPF from a baseline CT and identified patients with radiologic evidence of PPF up to 28 months earlier than local clinical diagnoses.

This next phase of the Brainomix–Boehringer Ingelheim partnership aims to advance the work further, centered around a prospective, mixed-methods study, PROGRESS-PPF. Conducted across multiple sites in the US, it will generate both quantitative and qualitative real-world evidence to evaluate whether the routine use of e-Lung can support earlier clinical diagnosis of PPF, enabling treatment to begin sooner in the disease course, and, ultimately, support improved patient outcomes.

Dr. Michalis Papadakis, CEO and Co-Founder of Brainomix said: “We are excited to expand our strategic partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim, a recognized leader and innovator in this field, with whom we share a firm commitment to improving outcomes for people living with pulmonary fibrosis. The evidence generated to date for e-Lung is highly compelling, showing the technology has the potential to accelerate diagnosis by more than two years. This next phase will enable us to evaluate that potential at scale, providing robust real-world validation of what we expect could be a transformative advancement in the patient care pathway.”

“Boehringer Ingelheim is proud to expand our partnership with Brainomix as part of our continued commitment to improving care for people living with pulmonary fibrosis,” said Dr. Emmanuelle Clerisme-Beaty, Senior Vice President Medicine & Regulatory Affairs, Boehringer Ingelheim. “Progressive pulmonary fibrosis can be challenging to diagnose, and innovations that enhance our ability to detect disease have the potential to improve patient outcomes.”

An Innovation Hub session at ATS, entitled “Advancing ILD Care: Real-World Impact of Brainomix e-Lung,” will take place on Tuesday, May 19th, during which Prof. Peter George (Consultant Pulmonologist at the Royal Brompton Hospital, UK and Brainomix Senior Medical Director) will speak with Dr. Andy Limper (Mayo Clinic, Rochester) and Dr. Tathagat Narula (Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville) about their institution’s experience with Brainomix e-Lung, where it has been incorporated into routine clinical practice. 

Brainomix will be exhibiting the e-Lung technology at the ATS International Conference (booth #2250) from Sunday, May 17th to Tuesday, May 19th.

12, May 2026
Retail Inflation Rises Marginally to 3.48% in April as Food Prices Stay Elevated !

New Delhi, May 12 (BNP): India’s retail inflation inched up to 3.48 percent in April from 3.40 percent recorded in March, mainly due to continued pressure on food prices, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

Retail Inflation Rises Marginally to 3.48% in April as Food Prices Stay Elevated !

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation remained within the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort range, though rising food costs continued to impact household spending across the country. Food inflation increased to 4.20 percent in April compared to 3.87 percent in the previous month, reflecting sustained price pressure in essential commodities.

Data showed that inflation in rural India stood at 3.74 percent, higher than the 3.16 percent recorded in urban areas, indicating relatively stronger price pressure in the countryside.

Despite the rise in food inflation, a sharp decline in the prices of several vegetables helped prevent a steeper increase in overall inflation. Potato prices registered a major decline of 23.69 percent, while onion prices fell by 17.67 percent on a year-on-year basis. Certain non-food segments, including vehicles and household appliances, also witnessed negative inflation, contributing to moderation in headline numbers.

However, some food items continued to remain costly. Tomato prices surged by 35.28 percent, while cauliflower prices rose by 25.58 percent compared to the same period last year, keeping pressure on consumers.

Economists said the April inflation figures were softer than market expectations but cautioned that global geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, and weather-related risks such as El Niño could create upward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Experts believe the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a cautious “wait-and-watch” approach regarding future monetary policy decisions while closely monitoring inflation trends and global economic conditions.

Retail inflation remains a key economic indicator as it directly affects consumer purchasing power, interest rate decisions, and overall economic sentiment across the country.

New Delhi, May 12 (BNP): India’s retail inflation inched up to 3.48 percent in April from 3.40 percent recorded in March, mainly due to continued pressure on food prices, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation remained within the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort range, though rising food costs continued to impact household spending across the country. Food inflation increased to 4.20 percent in April compared to 3.87 percent in the previous month, reflecting sustained price pressure in essential commodities.

Data showed that inflation in rural India stood at 3.74 percent, higher than the 3.16 percent recorded in urban areas, indicating relatively stronger price pressure in the countryside.

Despite the rise in food inflation, a sharp decline in the prices of several vegetables helped prevent a steeper increase in overall inflation. Potato prices registered a major decline of 23.69 percent, while onion prices fell by 17.67 percent on a year-on-year basis. Certain non-food segments, including vehicles and household appliances, also witnessed negative inflation, contributing to moderation in headline numbers.

However, some food items continued to remain costly. Tomato prices surged by 35.28 percent, while cauliflower prices rose by 25.58 percent compared to the same period last year, keeping pressure on consumers.

Economists said the April inflation figures were softer than market expectations but cautioned that global geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, and weather-related risks such as El Niño could create upward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Experts believe the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a cautious “wait-and-watch” approach regarding future monetary policy decisions while closely monitoring inflation trends and global economic conditions.

Retail inflation remains a key economic indicator as it directly affects consumer purchasing power, interest rate decisions, and overall economic sentiment across the country.

 
12, May 2026
Asian Institute of Medical Sciences Celebrates Nurses Day with Nightingale Awards Honouring Compassion, Commitment, and Care

Faridabad,  May, 12: On the occasion of International Nurses Day, the Asian Institute of Medical Sciences proudly celebrated its nursing fraternity with a heartfelt felicitation ceremony held at its super speciality hospital & cancer centre. The event, marked by gratitude and emotional resonance, recognized outstanding nursing professionals through the prestigious Nightingale Awards (Male & Female categories), acknowledging their unwavering dedication to patient care, service excellence, and clinical compassion.

The celebration was organised on May 12 at the hospital premises in the presence of senior leadership, doctors, nursing heads, department heads, unit directors, and staff members. Distinguished dignitaries present included Mr. Anupam Pandey, Director – Purchase & Administration; Dr. Prashant Pandey, Director – Medical Services; Ms. Neha Pandey, Director – International Business Development; Ms. Smriti Pandey; Director – Patient Care Services & HOD, Dental; Dr. Ramesh Chandna, Chairman – Safety, Quality, Laboratory Services & Blood Bank; Dr. (Brig.) Arvind Gupta, Chairman – Paediatrics & Neonatology; Dr. Anita Kant, Chairman – OBG Services & Robotic Surgery; Dr. Hilal Ahmad, Medical Superintendent & Regional Director; Dr. P.S. Ahuja, Senior Consultant, Dr. Kavita Vurity-  Group Chief Human Resource Officer along with other department heads and unit directors, who were also present during the celebration. ,

The Nightingale Award – Male category honoured Mr. Akshay (BMTU), Mr. Dinesh (5th G.W.), Mr. Apu (G.W.-2), and Mr. Rohit (Neuro ICU) for their clinical excellence and empathetic patient handling. In the Female category, Ms. Shivani (ICU-1), Ms. Kanupriya (6th PVT.), Ms. Moushmi (NICU), and Ms. Aparna (PICU) were recognized for their grace under pressure, resilience, and unwavering commitment to healing.

Addressing the gathering, Dr. N K Pandey, Chairman and Managing Director, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences, said,

“Nursing is a lifelong commitment to humanity and not just a profession. Nurses remain the backbone of healthcare, especially in high-dependency units where every moment is critical and every decision can alter outcomes. Nurses are the quiet strength of every hospital. They are the first to comfort pain and the last to leave a bedside. They stand as a bridge between hope and healing, and their contribution is measured not in hours, but in lives touched and families comforted.”

Sharing her thoughts during the celebration, Ms. Deepa, Chief Nursing Officer, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences, said,

“Nursing goes beyond clinical care; it is about compassion, patience, and being emotionally present for patients and families during their most vulnerable moments. Every nurse carries immense responsibility with courage and humanity, and this recognition truly honours that spirit of selfless service.”

Adding warmth and vibrancy to the occasion, the nursing teams also participated in cultural performances and interactive activities, celebrating the spirit of togetherness, teamwork, and dedication that defines the nursing community. The performances reflected the emotional bond shared among healthcare professionals beyond hospital duties.

The event concluded with a standing ovation for all nursing staff, reinforcing the hospital’s belief that healthcare is a collective effort built on trust, teamwork, and tireless service. The management reaffirmed its commitment to supporting and empowering nurses through continuous training, recognition, and a compassionate work environment.

 

12, May 2026
Adani Ports Expands Global Marine Business With US Deepwater Partnership

Ahmedabad, May 12 (BNP): Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has intensified its global expansion strategy in the offshore and subsea engineering sector through a strategic partnership between its marine division, Astro Offshore, and US-based Oceaneering International.

Adani Ports Expands Global Marine Business With US Deepwater Partnership

 Representational Image

The collaboration marks APSEZ’s formal entry into specialised deepwater operations in the European market and signals the company’s growing ambitions beyond conventional port management and cargo handling businesses.

Officials familiar with the development said the partnership will focus on advanced offshore engineering, subsea services, deepwater infrastructure support, and marine logistics operations. The move is expected to strengthen APSEZ’s position in the rapidly expanding global maritime and offshore services industry.

As part of its long-term growth strategy, APSEZ is aggressively scaling its marine business and plans to expand its fleet strength to nearly 200 vessels over the coming years. The company is targeting marine business revenues of around ₹6,000 crore by the financial year 2030-31.

To support this expansion, APSEZ has earmarked nearly ₹13,000 crore in capital expenditure for the marine segment over the next five years. Industry experts believe the investment will help the company diversify its operations, strengthen technological capabilities, and establish a stronger international presence in offshore engineering and deep-sea operations.

The latest partnership also reflects the increasing globalisation of India’s maritime sector, with Indian infrastructure companies actively entering high-value international marine and subsea engineering markets.

The development is being viewed as a significant milestone in APSEZ’s transformation from a domestic port operator into a globally diversified maritime infrastructure and marine services company.

 
12, May 2026
Great Day for Assam – PM Modi Praises Himanta Biswa Sarma’s Leadership

Guwahati, May 12 (BNP): Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday congratulated Himanta Biswa Sarma after he took oath as the Chief Minister of Assam for a second consecutive term, describing him as a “wonderful administrator” who has carried out pioneering work for the state.

News In Pics

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) returned to power in Assam for the third straight term following a decisive victory in the recently concluded Assembly elections. Himanta Biswa Sarma was sworn in amid a grand ceremony attended by senior BJP leaders, Union Ministers, Chief Ministers from NDA-ruled states, religious figures, industrialists, and party supporters.

In a message shared on social media, Prime Minister Modi called the occasion “a great day for Assam” and praised Sarma’s leadership and administrative performance during his previous tenure. The Prime Minister also extended his best wishes for the new government’s upcoming term.

Along with Sarma, four ministers — former Union Minister Rameswar Teli, AGP president Atul Bora, UPPL leader Charan Boro, and senior BJP leader Ajanta Neog — also took oath as members of the new Council of Ministers.

Prime Minister Modi separately congratulated the newly inducted ministers and expressed confidence that the team would continue strengthening Assam’s growth and development trajectory.

The swearing-in ceremony witnessed the presence of Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, along with several senior BJP functionaries and leaders from across the Northeast. Prominent religious leaders, including Satradhikars from Assam’s Vaishnavite monasteries, also attended the event.

Dressed in traditional Assamese attire, Himanta Biswa Sarma took the oath amid loud cheers from party workers and supporters. Having first assumed office in 2021, Sarma has now secured a second consecutive term, further consolidating the BJP’s political dominance in Assam and the northeastern region.

 
12, May 2026
Tamil Nadu CM Vijay Appoints Astrologer Radhan Pandit as Political OSD

Chennai, May 12 (BNP): Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Vijay has appointed noted astrologer and spiritual advisor Radhan Pandit Vettrivel as Officer on Special Duty (Political), triggering widespread political discussion across the state.

Tamil Nadu CM Vijay Appoints Astrologer Radhan Pandit as Political OSD

The official appointment order was issued on May 12, just a day before the newly formed government is expected to prove its majority on the floor of the Assembly. Radhan Pandit, who is considered a close confidant and personal astrologer of the Chief Minister, is known for his involvement in political consultations and spiritual guidance.

Describing himself as a “political and celebrity astrologer” on his professional profile, Radhan has previously claimed association with several prominent political leaders, including former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa and late BJP veteran L. K. Advani.

Earlier this year, Radhan had predicted a massive electoral victory for Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), initially forecasting 180 seats and later revising the estimate to over 150 seats. The party eventually secured 108 seats in the Assembly elections and has since moved to form the government with the support of alliance partners including Congress, Left parties, and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK).

The appointment has come at a politically sensitive time, coinciding with heated debates inside the Tamil Nadu Assembly over ideological and social issues. The development has sparked mixed reactions in political circles, with supporters calling it a matter of personal trust while critics questioned the inclusion of an astrologer in a significant political advisory role.

The latest move by the Vijay-led government has once again brought discussions around spirituality, politics, and governance into the public spotlight in Tamil Nadu.

 
12, May 2026
NEET-UG 2026 Cancelled Amid Paper Leak Allegations; Re-Exam to Be Held!

New Delhi, May 12 (BNP): The National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (Undergraduate) — NEET-UG 2026 — conducted on May 3, 2026, has been officially cancelled by the National Testing Agency (NTA) following serious allegations of question paper leaks and irregularities in the examination process.

In continuation of its press release dated 10 May 2026, the National Testing Agency wishes to inform candidates, parents, and members of the public of the following decisions taken in respect of NEET (UG) 2026. NTA had, on 8 May 2026, referred the matters then under consideration…

— National Testing Agency (@NTA_Exams) May 12, 2026

NEET-UG 2026 Cancelled Amid Paper Leak Allegations; Re-Exam to Be Held!

The decision was announced by the NTA on Tuesday after investigative findings and inputs shared by central and state law enforcement agencies, including the Rajasthan Special Operations Group (SOG), which is currently probing the alleged paper leak case.

In an official press release, the NTA stated that the examination has been cancelled with the approval of the Government of India in order to maintain transparency, fairness, and the integrity of the national-level medical entrance examination system.

“On the basis of the inputs subsequently examined by NTA in coordination with the central agencies, and the investigative findings shared by the law enforcement agencies, the National Testing Agency, with the approval of the Government of India, has decided to cancel the NEET (UG) 2026 examination conducted on May 3, 2026, and to re-conduct the examination on dates that will be notified separately,” the agency said.

The NTA further informed that revised dates and detailed guidelines regarding the re-examination will be announced separately through official notifications. Candidates have been advised to stay updated through the official NTA and NEET websites.

The cancellation has sparked strong reactions across the country, with lakhs of medical aspirants facing renewed uncertainty over the admission process. However, many students and education experts have welcomed the move as a necessary step to uphold the credibility of one of India’s most competitive entrance examinations.

 
 
 
12, May 2026
The Outbound American: New Research Tracks the Largest U.S. Emigration Shift in Decades

London — May 12, 2026 — Global Citizen Solutions (“GCS”), a leading residency and citizenship planning advisory firm, has published From Destination to Departure: America’s New Migration Story, a new briefing from its research arm, the Global Intelligence Unit (GIU), examining the long-term rise in American emigration. The shift has been decades in the making and is now measurable through citizenship renunciation records, overseas residency registrations, and survey data tracking Americans’ interest in moving abroad.

The scale of the outbound movement is visible across every continent. According to Pew Research Center, an estimated 2.2 million people left the US in 2025, of whom 180,000 were US citizens. The Association of Americans Resident Overseas estimates 5.5 million Americans were living abroad as of October 2024, up from 5.4 million the prior year. In nearly all 27 EU member states, the number of Americans arriving to live and work is at a record high. 

The GIU notes long-term economic, political, and lifestyle concerns are contributing to rising interest in emigration among Americans. Gallup’s longitudinal tracking shows the baseline has shifted dramatically: the desire to emigrate ran at 10% to 11% under Bush and Obama, rose to 16% to 20% during the first Trump presidency, and by November 2025 stood at one in five Americans overall, with women aged 15–44 reaching 40% — up from 10% in 2014.

Renunciation statistics — the most precisely documented indicator of emigration intent — tell a complementary story of acceleration. Before 2009, fewer than 400 Americans renounced their citizenship annually. By 2024, that figure had reached 4,820, a 48% increase from 2023 and the third-highest annual total ever recorded. In the first quarter of 2025, 1,285 Americans expatriated — a 102% jump on the prior quarter. The global queue for renunciation appointments now exceeds 30,000 people.

A significant further catalyst arrived on April 13, 2026, when the US State Department reduced the renunciation fee from $2,350 to $450, restoring it to pre-2015 levels following sustained legal pressure — a change widely expected to accelerate the trend.

 

The pool of Americans who could act on this interest is larger than is widely understood. An estimated 7 to 10 million Americans already hold dual citizenship, while up to 30 million may qualify for ancestry-based European passports through countries including Italy, Ireland, Poland, Germany, and Hungary — options that have existed for years but which many Americans are only now discovering.

 

The trend is also registering in passport demand. GCS’s Global Passport Index (GPI)— which tracks the travel freedom, lifestyle, and investment value of passports across more than 199 countries — shows the US falling from 1st place in 2021 to 14th in 2025, a decline that reflects both reduced immigration into the country and the growing appeal of alternative citizenships among Americans seeking broader global mobility.

“What the Global Passport Index captures that conventional economic data cannot is the gap between aggregate wealth and lived experience,” said Laura Madrid, Lead Researcher at the Global Citizen Solutions’ GIU. “The United States remains a high-income country by every traditional measure. But the structural pressures bearing down on ordinary Americans — rising poverty, persistent inflation in housing and healthcare, deepening political polarization, and a public safety crisis unlike anything seen in peer nations — are registering in people’s decisions about where to build their lives.”

GIU research identifies several compounding pressures. The US Supplemental Poverty Measure reached 12.9% in 2023, its second consecutive annual increase, while CPI-U inflation ran at 3.0% year-on-year into early 2025. In 2023 alone, the country recorded weather and climate disasters totaling at least $92.9 billion in damages. On public safety, gun violence continues to set the US apart from every comparable high-income nation.

“This is not the profile of people fleeing crisis,” Madrid added. “These are informed, often financially stable individuals and families making a deliberate calculation — that their money, their safety, and their quality of life will go further elsewhere.”

Where Americans Are Going

Europe remains the most sought-after destination, with more than 1.5 million Americans now living across the continent. As of December 2023, the top EU and EFTA destinations for US nationals on residence permits were Germany (81,509), Spain (44,804), France (38,181), Italy (36,549), the Netherlands (33,107), Switzerland (19,579), and Portugal (13,948) — the vast majority on permits of one year or more, indicating long-term relocation rather than short stays.

Portugal ranks first in GCS’s Global Retirement Index and Spain leads its Global Digital Nomad Index. Greece, Italy, and Malta are drawing significant numbers across income and lifestyle profiles. Italy’s ancestry citizenship route, historically one of the most sought-after by Americans, was restricted by Law 74/2025 to children and grandchildren of Italian citizens — a change upheld by Italy’s Constitutional Court in March 2026 that blocks an estimated 80 million people previously eligible through earlier generations. The restriction has prompted some Americans to apply before additional policy changes take effect. Caribbean citizenship-by-investment programs continue to attract those seeking faster routes to a second passport and greater global mobility.

To read the full briefing, visit: From Destination to Departure: America’s New Migration Story

Amid a surge in demand for practical guidance, GCS has updated its guide for Americans, on the 23 Best Countries to move to in 2026, covering digital nomad and passive income visas, Golden Visa investment routes, moving costs and living expenses.

12, May 2026
TrafficGuard Launches Self-Serve Platform to Help SMEs Stop Click Fraud in 10 Minutes or Less
Australia, 12th May – TrafficGuard, the ad verification platform, trusted by William Hill, Zain and Now Finance, has launched a fully automated self-serve platform that gives SMEs enterprise-grade click fraud protection in under 10 minutes. Once deployed, the platform immediately starts analysing campaign traffic and protecting Google Ads budgets from bots, click fraud and invalid traffic.
 
TrafficGuard has seen its SME customer base surge over the last 12 months, with self-serve accounts growing to over 10,000, driven by increased demand for ad-fraud protection solutions. TrafficGuard’s solution ensures SMEs can rapidly deploy and scale their analytics and defences with almost no barrier to entry. 
 
“Invalid traffic and click fraud are no longer just an enterprise problem – the bots have moved downstream, and small businesses are often the softest target. Most don’t even know how much of their ad spend is being wasted,” said Mathew Ratty, Co-founder and CEO of TrafficGuard. “With over 200 million SMEs spending on digital advertising globally, it’s crucial they have a clear and transparent view of their advertising performance and where their budgets are going. We’re now focused on providing our proprietary platform to all types of businesses to protect the ecosystem from invalid traffic and fraud.”
 
TrafficGuard’s self-serve platform allows SMEs to make better informed decisions with an expansive view of their advertising performance and invalid traffic (IVT) rates consolidated into a single interface. The solution provides in-depth analytics for Google Ads, with Meta (Facebook and Instagram) protection scheduled by July 2026. The SME offering is highly accessible at $49 per month, with a user-friendly sign-up and fully automated model without the need for enterprise level support.
 
“Tackling click fraud and other forms of invalid traffic has become increasingly urgent for advertisers in the SME sector, and this is one of the main drivers behind our decision to launch our tailored solution,” said Chad Kinlay, CMO at TrafficGuard. “The platform utilises a phased approach to pricing, minimising friction and simplifying decision-making so SMEs can protect their budgets right away.”
 
TrafficGuard is a multi-award-winning platform that detects, mitigates and reports on digital invalid traffic and ad fraud before it hits advertising budgets. It is trusted by thousands of global businesses, including enterprise brands operating across highly competitive verticals such as finance, eCommerce, travel and gaming. This launch comes after TrafficGuard’s recent expansion of its operations in the U.S. as part of a robust growth pipeline.
12, May 2026
Bandhan AMC Adjusts Duration Strategy Amid External Pressures and Global Developments

By:- Suyash Choudhary, CIO  Fixed Income, Bandhan AMC

Background

For the last few months, we have been focussed on the tension from external account pressures frustrating RBI’s ‘lower for longer’ theme. This can be envisaged under the framework of what is called ‘the impossible trinity’; which denotes the potential tension between exchange rate, capital flow, and monetary policy. Over the past year, one can see this tension in play in the case of India. This has led to monetary easing not achieving desired transmission in market rates.

Given this dynamic, it has made sense to us to turn more active on duration management. Thus, when the ‘lower for longer’ theme seemed to be dominating bond valuations, we had turned underweight duration. Over the course of the West Asia war, as market pricing on rate hikes turned quite aggressive, we had added back duration risk. We had preferred 14 and 40 years on the sovereign curve (since this curve has still been quite steep despite ongoing external account pressures) and front end (up to 3-4 years) on the corporate curve (since this curve is already flat reflecting elevated bank’s credit to deposit ratios).

New Developments

  1. Duration of the shock: Given the size of the quantity shock on various commodities from the West Asia war, the length of the disruption was always of a major concern for markets and the global economy. With the buffer from inventories depleting, the sustained impact on supply has potential now for greater damage. There is also risk from production shutdowns increasing at source if offtake via the Strait continues to be compromised. Finally, the floor rates on a host of energy prices likely moves up the longer the conflict persists. This is because of rising buildup of ships that needs clearing once the Strait opens, the capacity of ports to process this flow, and the need for nations to rebuild depleted inventories and possibly build for even higher strategic reserves than before.
  1. US growth is holding up, and alternate capital allocation themes are intact:  One reason to go overweight duration was also the very likely impact of the war on growth, and markets pricing that in central bank response functions. This theme would have played an important counterweight to the tightening in financial conditions that we are otherwise facing here in India owing to external account pressures. While this expectation may still hold from a few months’ standpoint, the immediate data reflects a resilient US economy. Furthermore, important capital allocation themes around the world linked to the AI story are if, anything, strengthening in momentum lately.

Implications

It can be easily seen that the above two developments are adding to the external account pressures and, by implication, to the growing disconnect between RBI’s policy rate and market rates. If this dynamic were to not change, the path of least resistance would be for RBI to bring forward tightening rather than market yields reverting to anchoring around existing policy rates. That said, it is important to clarify on two points: One, the route for policy rate normalisation will still be the traditional growth-inflation framework: a prolonged pressure on commodity prices, accompanied with continued currency pressures, will obviously change the predicted path of inflation. With average CPI for the current financial year easily likely to be in the 5 – 6% band, it almost automatically follows that RBI/MPC will have to undertake some rate hikes. As a base case one should expect 50 – 75 bps hikes over the course of the rest of this fiscal year. Two, this still doesn’t imply that a ‘rate defence’ is warranted to ease currency pressures. Thus, at whatever point, if market pricing starts to lean into the direction of aggressive rate hikes (more than what is warranted by the evolving inflation-growth dynamic), we would likely consider that as an opportunity to scale up market risk. To be clear, however, this is our thinking as of date and not a commitment.

Portfolio Strategy Update

Reflecting the evolving dynamics as discussed above, we have again gone underweight duration across a host of our funds (subject to individual mandates and positionings). The primary route undertaken for this has been via reducing our 14- and 40-year government bond positions. Recent relative stability in yields has made the decision somewhat easier, even as the primary reason for the change has been continuous evaluation of the underlying ‘impossible trinity’ tensions in context of the two new developments as described above.

One looks forward to developments that may allow for external pressures to ease including 1> conclusion to the war 2> effective capital flow garnering measures.  A sustainable turn to our capital flow dynamic, however, may also need some fatiguing of the AI allocation theme and / or return of some meaningful US rate cut expectations. Both are for now absent. It is also to be noted that our latest portfolio positionings reflect our current thinking. As always, these may change at any time in the future.