Wood Mackenzie: Six-country international shale priority list for energy security as Middle East conflict drives supply diversification

LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, April 16, 2026 – Middle East conflict has elevated strategic energy security priorities as countries seek supply diversification, international shale exploration can play a key role in meeting those goals, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie, titled “A hydrocarbon copy: the upstream industry’s return to international shale exploration”.

Six countries are advancing unconventional resource development to help address energy security objectives. Algeria leads for European supply diversification, while the UAE, Mexico, Australia, Türkiye, and Indonesia pursue domestic energy strategies through international partnerships and technology deployment.

Algeria’s proximity to European market

Algeria hosts vast reserves, and the Lower Silurian shale offers piped export potential. ExxonMobil and Chevron have exploration partnerships, though oilfield service bottlenecks require resolution.

Five additional countries target energy independence:

• UAE – Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is moving toward final investment decisions for unconventional gas supporting a 2030 self-sufficiency target. Drilling could exceed 300 wells per year.
• Mexico – Pemex set 2030 shale gas and tight oil targets amid US trade tensions.
• Australia –The Northern Territory Beetaloo gas project targets LNG backfill and east-coast market supply.
• Türkiye – Continental is working in the Diyarbakır and Thrace basins and advancing exploration at an accelerated pace compared to other companies’ earlier efforts.
• Indonesia – Regulators seek US participation in Sumatra basin tight oil. Targets include lacustrine sediments, once thought too challenging but proven viable by the Uinta basin in the US.

From Permian concentration to global re-engagement

A mix of subsurface and regulatory challenges slowed international shale progress in the 2010s, but the evolving Permian opportunity proved decisive. Companies ended global shale exploration and pivoted to West Texas for lower-risk, lower-cost growth.

Eight companies that once led global shale exploration—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, Marathon, EOG, and APA—spent $230 billion acquiring and developing Permian positions between 2012 and 2025. Breakevens were driven down by more efficient operations and dramatically improved well recoveries, positioning the Permian lower on the global cost curve

US Lower 48 growth is slowing now though, and companies are looking elsewhere to leverage their unconventional skillsets.

A high-graded global search

Global shale exploration last decade also suffered from a lack of focus. Companies are now evaluating approximately 20 high-graded plays, compared with over 100 assessed last decade.

“Explorers know the countries to avoid,” said Robert Clarke, Vice President, Upstream Research at Wood Mackenzie. “Bans on hydraulic fracturing or unworkable fiscal terms will make certain projects impossible. Companies also have a better understanding of supply-chain risks, such as red tape that restricts the import of critical drilling and completion equipment.”

Two US shale specialists have made concrete moves. Continental Resources entered Argentina’s Vaca Muerta through multiple deals and formed an unconventional joint venture with Türkiye’s state oil company. EOG Resources made unconventional entries into Bahrain and the UAE. Some plays being studied are assets EOG evaluated during the first wave of global shale exploration. Majors, international oil companies and national oil companies are all participating.

Proof of scale and requirements for success

Argentina’s Vaca Muerta and Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah demonstrate achievable scale in plays outside North America. Combined, the projects will produce more than 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the next decade and absorb $250 billion in future capital expenditure. Jafurah and Vaca Muerta prove that public companies, private investors and national oil companies can all participate.

“Countries seeking to commercialize projects must customize fiscal arrangements, terms for work programs and licensing,” said Josh Dixon, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Where there is alignment with national interest and the will to make these projects succeed, incentives for investment will follow.”

“The greatest advantage for global shale 2.0 is that there is no new US play on the scale of the Permian Basin to compete for future short cycle capital,” said Robert Clarke. “US shale drove growth over two decades nearly equivalent to the next ten countries combined—that’s the scale energy-thirsty economies abroad want to replicate. Technology has pushed costs down across all US shale basins. Where host governments align unconventional development with national energy security and provide fast regulatory timelines, investment and expertise will follow.”

Insecticide in insect repellents impairs bumblebees’ ability to navigate

Even brief exposure to the insecticide used in mosquito repellents can significantly impair bumblebees’ ability to find their way back to the nest. The bumblebees’ ability to navigate back to the nest is vital to the survival of the entire colony.

In the summer, many people turn to mosquito repellents to reduce the insects’ buzzing and bites. One solution that has become increasingly popular in recent years is the Thermacell device, which releases vaporized, pyrethroid-based insecticide prallethrin into the air. There has been much discussion in recent years about the effects of this substance on nature and pollinators in particular, but research data has been limited.

Researchers from the University of Turku and University of Oulu in Finland studied how prallethrin impacts bumblebees’ behaviour. The results of the study show that even a brief exposure to the insecticide can significantly impair bumblebees’ ability to find their way back to the nest.

“For bumblebees, returning to the nest is no small matter, on the contrary, it is essential to the survival of the entire colony. If the workers cannot find their way back, the nest will not get any food,” says Senior Research Fellow Olli Loukola from the University of Turku.

Impact on navigation was clear, but exposure did not increase mortality

The researchers studied the behaviour of 167 buff-tailed bumblebees (Bombus terrestris). They were exposed to prallethrin for one, ten or twenty minutes with a repellent device meant for consumer use, after which the bumblebees were released a kilometre from their nest and their return was monitored for three days.

The results were clear. Of the bumblebees in the control group that were not exposed to prallethrin, 37% returned to the nest. The return percent of the bumblebees that were exposed to prallethrin for one minute did not differ from that of the control group. However, of the bees that were exposed for ten minutes, only 17% found their way back, and just 5% of the bumblebees that were exposed to the insecticide for twenty minutes returned to the nest.

For those individuals that managed to return, the time taken to do so was not prolonged. Furthermore, laboratory tests showed that exposure did not increase bumblebee mortality, suggesting that the effect is specifically related to impaired navigation ability rather than direct toxicity.

“Bumblebee colonies depend on workers collecting food, so if they cannot find their way back to the nest, the colony’s ability to obtain nutrition deteriorates. Over time, this can weaken the nest, reduce the number of new queens and, in the worst-case scenario, result in the death of the entire colony,” says Researcher Kimmo Kaakinen from the University of Turku.

Researchers recommend reassessing the ecological safety of mosquito repellents

In Finland, the use of Thermacell devices is permitted, but their use is restricted to the immediate vicinity of residential buildings, such as yards and patios. The devices must not be used indoors or in natural environments, such as forests or national parks.

“Prallethrin-based repellents are used in many countries primarily for convenience. In some situations, their use may be justified, for example, in the prevention of diseases spread by mosquitoes,” says Kaakinen.

According to the researchers, it is important to conduct a more detailed assessment of the effects of household insecticides on pollinators. They state that the study’s findings highlight the need to reassess the ecological safety of these products.

The research was conducted in collaboration between the University of Turku and the University of Oulu and the research article was published in the journal Biology Letters.
Read the research article: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2025.0749